British News Agency

Scientists at University College London (UCL), working with Water Basin Research and The Guardian, analysed 2002–2024 data from satellites that monitor changes in the Earth’s gravitational field.

Because water is heavy, changes in groundwater, rivers, lakes, soil moisture and glaciers appear in the signal, allowing satellites to effectively “measure” how much water is being stored.

The findings reveal a striking imbalance: northern and northwestern Europe (in particular Scandinavia, some parts of the UK and Portugal) are receiving more rainfall, while large areas of the south and southeast, including parts of the UK, Spain, Italy, France, Switzerland, Germany, Romania and Ukraine, are becoming drier.

Scientists say the signature of climate breakdown is visible in the data. Mohammad Shamsudduha, professor of water crisis and risk reduction at UCL, said: “When we compare total terrestrial water storage data with climate data sets, the trends broadly match.”

Shamsudduha said this should be a “wake-up call” for politicians who are still sceptical about cutting emissions. “We are no longer talking about limiting warming to 1.5C – we are probably heading towards 2C above pre-industrial levels, and we are now witnessing the consequences.”

Groundwater is thought to be more resilient to climate impacts than surface water, but he noted that intense summer downpours often cause more water to be lost as surface run-off and flash flooding, while the winter groundwater recharge season may be shortening.

According to data from the European Environment Agency, between 2000 and 2022 the total amount of water abstracted from surface and groundwater sources across the EU decreased, but groundwater abstraction increased by 6%. The main drivers of this increase were public water supply (18%) and agriculture (17%).

Across EU member states, groundwater accounted for 62% of total public water supply and 33% of agricultural water demand in 2022.