British News Agency

What happened in the markets yesterday? Concerns persist about high interest rates in the US and the possibility of a government shutdown if no budget agreement is reached in Congress, leading to mixed performance in the stock markets. Since the beginning of the week, Fed officials continue to make "hawkish" remarks, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggesting that multiple interest rate hikes may be needed. With expectations that interest rates will remain high for an extended period, US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.65%. Fed Chairman Powell's speech tonight will be closely watched. We believe the messages Powell conveys tonight will be important following his "hawkish" stance at the last meeting. On the macroeconomic data front, the US unexpectedly saw rising durable goods orders in August, contrary to expectations of a decline. Orders increased by 0.2% during this period, while a decline of 0.5% was expected. The July data was also revised from a decline of 5.2% to a decline of 5.6%. This increase indicates resilience in investments despite rising borrowing costs. US stock markets closed the session with a mixed trend. The S&P 500 index rose 0.02% to 4,274.51, while the Nasdaq index rose 0.22% to 13,092.85, and the Dow Jones index fell 0.2% to 33,550.27. European stock markets saw predominantly selling pressure. The Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 0.06% to 4,131.65, while the CAC 40 fell 0.05% and the DAX fell 0.25%, and the FTSE 100 index closed with a loss of 0.43%. Short-term bond yields rose to 5.12%, while 10-year bond yields rose to 4.59%. The VIX index slightly declined to 18.22.

What do we expect today? Today, Asia-Pacific markets are seeing mixed performance as rising bond yields and negative impact on investor confidence from rising oil prices on Wall Street take effect. The Hang Seng index fell 0.88% after the shares of troubled Chinese real estate company Evergrande were suspended, while the Nikkei index fell 0.93%. The KOSPI index has a negative trend of 0.06%, while the Nifty is up 0.39%, and Indonesia is seeing a positive trend of 0.20%. US futures are trading mixed. Today in the US, Weekly Jobless Claims, Continuing Home Sales, GDP, and the quarterly Core PCE Price Index will be released. We will also pay attention to speeches by Fed officials Goolsbee and Cook, as well as Fed Chairman Powell. In the second quarter, GDP (annualized quarterly growth) is expected to rise by 2.3%, following a 2.1% increase in the previous quarter. The GDP Price Index in the second quarter is expected to increase by 2%. In the Eurozone, the final Consumer Confidence Index and a speech by ECB Board Member Holzmann will be followed. In Germany, inflation data will also be tracked. Inflation is expected to slow to 4.8% on an annual basis.

What's on the agenda for the near future? On Friday, in the US, Personal Income and Outlays, PCE Deflator, Retail Inventories, MNI Chicago PMI, and the University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index will be released. In August, personal incomes are expected to rise by 0.5% and spending by 0.4%. The monthly PCE Deflator is expected to rise by 0.5% on a monthly basis and 3.5% on an annual basis, while the monthly Core PCE Deflator is expected to rise by 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.9% on an annual basis. The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to be at 47.6 in September, after registering at 48.7 in the last report. The University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index (final) is expected to be at 67.7. On the same day, speeches by Fed officials Barkin and Williams are also expected. In the Eurozone, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI data, as well as a speech by ECB President Lagarde, will be followed.

Source: Halk Yatırım